Will US Passenger Trains Survive Another Four Years of Trump?
With MAGA Conservatives Now in Charge Federal Transit Grants Face Elimination
I was shocked and dismayed by the outcome of last week’s presidential election. That’s putting it mildly, I suppose, but I don’t want to dwell on the race or its participants. We need to look ahead to what the election of Donald Trump as our 47th President will mean to railroads – specifically passenger trains of all stripes – intercity, regional, and mass transit.
Between what Project 2025, the policy manifesto created by the Heritage Foundation, says regarding transportation and what Trump did during his last term, the outlook is not good. There is plenty for everyone from passengers to labor to investors to be nervous about.
Conservatism or Trumpism or MAGAism has a singular focus on profitability and the welfare of the investor class to the detriment of other stakeholders. It is fine for businesses to be profit driven. My portfolio has benefited from their successes. But profits should not come at the expense of safety, sustainability, free exchange of ideas, and open and fair markets.
In the public sector the emphasis is on providing benefits to the public, i.e. making investments that would not generate profits for a corporation but are essential to a society’s function. In a blogpost for Planetizen, transportation planner Marcelo Remond notes that many DOT grants are targeted to achieve societal goals such as congestion mitigation, air quality improvement, and infrastructure resiliency.
Amtrak will most likely focus on additional frequencies for existing routes because the infrastructure needed to support them is mostly in place.
Project 2025 states USDOT’s mission has morphed from providing “a policy framework for transportation safety, rule making, and regulation” to choosing transportation projects to fund. It argues this role should be left to asset owners, i.e. the states, municipalities, and the private sector.
Heritage wants transportation funding to be more dependent upon user fees such as tolls and taxes on fuel, with private sector financing playing a larger role. The feds would be kept out of the decision-making process. Instead, the government would send transportation grants to the states, which would decide how they would be spent.
Public transit would be defined as transport provided for the public rather transit provided by a city or state. It would include micro-mobility solutions such as ride sharing. Trump’s first administration tried unsuccessfully to eliminate the capital improvement grants provided through the Federal Transit Administration. Project 2025 calls for more rigorous investment criteria if the grants cannot be de-funded.
Project 2025 policies would hurt transit and railroad labor. It calls for eliminating bargaining rights protection covered under Section 10-c of the Urban Mass Transit Act of 1964. This could result in lower wages or reduced benefits. In addition, it would remove transit funding from the Highway Trust Fund and eliminate federal subsidies for transit.
Heritage opines Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) safety policies are intended to maintain the status quo, i.e. job preservation, and prevent use of technology to improve safety. They example they cite is the call for two-member crews even though railroad management maintains they can safely use one person in some situations.
Planetizen’s Redmond points out that eliminating transit grants from the Highway Trust Fund would do little to eliminate future Fund deficits since those grants represent a small part of the Trust Fund’s appropriations. In addition, the federal tax on gasoline, which funds the trust has not kept up with inflation. It has been 18.4 cents per gallon since 1993. Further, fuel tax collections are likely to decline as more drivers switch to electric vehicles.
Eliminating FTA funding would be devastating for transit agencies of all sizes. In FY 2022 FTA provided $14 billion to 2,147 agencies that include New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority as well as 1,281 operators that serve rural communities, according to the Center for American Progress.
FTA funded 19 percent of MTA’s 2020 – 2024 capital program and has commitments to mega infrastructure projects such as replacing the Hudson River tunnels and extending the Second Avenue subway. Withholding that money could lead to these projects being delayed or cancelled. In addition, cutbacks could lead to reduced service, deferred maintenance, and higher fares.
Although Project 2025 does not address Amtrak specifically, historically Republican administrations have sought to eliminate or reduce federal support for the national intercity passenger railroad. In addition, the first Trump administration clawed back funding previously granted for projects he did not think were viable or necessary. This includes a $929 million grant to the California High-Speed Rail Authority and withholding funds for new Hudson River tunnels.
I don’t hold myself out as clairvoyant but, based on what happened during previous Republican administrations, I have a few thoughts.
Amtrak will survive
Although some marginal performers may be at risk, I don’t expect the national long-distance trains to go away. With the exception of the Coast Starlight they all serve one or more Red States so they are likely to find Senate and House champions in places like Montana, Kansas, and Mississippi.
However, the Amtrak Connects Us strategic plan, which calls for 35 new routes by 2035, will likely be cut back, expect for situations with strong local financial support. Instead Amtrak will most likely focus on additional frequencies for existing routes because the infrastructure needed to support them is mostly in place.
In addition, some of the Northeast Corridor projects funded through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law may get cut. The Portal Bridge replacement in New Jersey and the new Hudson River Tunnels, which are underway, are probably safe since they are necessary to keep the existing system running. However, the Frederick Douglass tunnel in West Baltimore could be at risk, meaning Acela and Northeast Regional trains will still have to crawl through the Charm City.
Regional rail revolution stalls
With the dramatic fall-off in people commuting to center cities for work post-pandemic commuter carriers are reinventing themselves as regional railroads. Under this model the railroad provides frequent service throughout the day and on weekends instead of just during peak hour periods. Trains run on fixed frequencies, e.g. every 30 or 60 minutes, and consists are usually shorter than during rush hour.
In addition to carrying workers, regional railroads support travel for shopping, dining, entertainment, education, sightseeing, sports, and visiting family and friends. Some commuter carriers, e.g. Long Island Rail Road, Metro North, and SEPTA, have been operating with under a regional model on many of their routes for years.
However increasing frequency may require investment in additional track, signaling, rolling stock, yard space, maintenance facilities, etc. Unless the carrier can demonstrate there is strong demand for the service and it can generate sufficient revenue a Trump DOT is likely to give a ‘thumbs down’ to funding these service expansions.
Transit projects sidelined
Since residents of large cities tend to vote overwhelming for Democrats urban transit systems are more at risk of losing federal funds. Fewer dollars are likely to be available, especially if the Trump administration ends spending Highway Trust Fund money on transit. Therefore transit agencies and state DOTs will have to compete for the funds that remain and make sure they have lined up political support to win.
Projects to replace or modernize obsolete facilities will likely stand a better chance of getting funded than new starts unless there is a compelling reason for the expansion. It was not surprising to hear talk of New York Gov. Kathy Hochul reviving plans for congestion pricing in Manhattan; she needs to raise funds for projects like the proposed Interborough Express.
Despite all the hoopla regarding Project 2025 I suspect Congress has many pragmatic people on both sides of the aisle who support programs that are popular with their constituents – even if it imperils their MAGA street cred. If you want to continue to be able to ride trains – whether across the continent or across your city – this is the time to make your voices heard. Advocacy is the best tool we have until the winds in Washington blow in the right direction again.
Thanks for a thoughtful and thorough exploration and explanation of an important topic -- for YOU and for so many travelers. Everything is now politicized!!!
Yes 100%