US Demand for Train Travel is Soaring. Will Amtrak Meet It or Kill It?

Rail carrier adding new routes, enhancing existing lines, and re-equipping its fleet

Rendering of “Amtrak Airo” trainset which is slated to enter service in 2026. Image courtesy of Amtrak media relations.

It seems everyone everywhere in the United States wants ride a train. New passenger services have been proposed for places that have been freight-only for decades such as Craig, CO, Boise, ID, and the state of South Dakota.

This trend has multiple drivers. After the pandemic people are traveling again. For many, rail has become an accessible alternative to driving or flying, both of which are frequently subject to delays and congestion. In addition, many Americans got a taste of train travel while abroad and now want here what Europeans and Asians take for granted. Trends toward carbon-neutral and car-free living, popular among millennials, have also boosted demand.

Amtrak’s financial results for fiscal year 2023 bear this out. Ridership is up 24.6 percent year-over-year. The carrier hauled 28.6 million passengers, up from 22.9 million in FY 2022, but still below the pre-pandemic peak of 32.5 million passengers for FY 2019.

Gains were reported across all three of the railroad’s service groups – Northeast Corridor, State-Supported and Long Distance. Just six product lines – Pere Marquette, Illinois Zephyr/Carl Sandburg, Pacific Surfliner, Silver Star, Silver Star, Capitol Limited, and Coast Starlight – reported fewer riders.

To its credit, Amtrak has introduced – or is close to introducing – several new services. In 2022, the railroad added a third round trip between New York and Norfolk, VA, a route it began to serve in 2012 with a single round trip. Earlier this year, a fourth Piedmont round trip entered service between Raleigh and Charlotte, NC. Next week, two round trips between Seattle and Portland, OR, will be added bringing to seven the number of daily departures on that corridor in either direction.

In 2024 Amtrak expects to launch two round trips between New Orleans and Mobile, AL, a route last served by the Sunset Limited in 2005. In addition, second round trips between New York and Pittsburgh and between Chicago and Saint Paul, MN, have been green-lighted.

These are part of a vision statement the company unveiled in 2020 called Amtrak Connect US that calls for 39 new services and enhanced service on 25 existing routes by 2035. Thanks to $66 billion for railroads contained in  the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, Amtrak is able to support states that participate in the Federal Railroad Administration’s Corridor Identification and Development Program.

Additionally, Amtrak has been procuring new locomotives and rolling stock for several years. According to On-Track-On-Line’s Amtrak roster, as of November 1 the company had placed into service 36 4,200 HP Siemens ALC 42 “Charger” locomotives out of an order for 125 units to be delivered by 2025. These units will replace General Electric P-42 units on long-distance trains

They are in addition to the 47 SC-44 models built by Siemens in 2016 and 2017 for state-supported intercity services in the Midwest and on the Pacific Coast. Siemens is also building 137 coaches, café-lounge cars, and baggage-coach cars for use on these routes to replace California cars and other intercity rolling stock.

However, an order placed in 2016 with Alstom for 28 new Avelia Liberty trainsets to replace the original Acela Express equipment has been plagued by mechanical issues. The trains were supposed to enter service in 2021 but the launch date has been pushed back to sometime in 2024. Only nine trainsets were delivered to Amtrak to date, of which none have been accepted.

When complete, Amtrak will have 40 percent more trainsets assigned to Acela service than currently. In addition, each trainset will seat 386 passengers, up from the current 304 seats for an overall two-thirds increase in capacity. The trains will operate at top speed of 160 mph. Amtrak plans to offer more daily departures including half-hour frequency during peak hours.

The biggest project in Amtrak’s “New Era Fleet” will be replacing the more than 500 Amfleet and Horizon cars currently used on the Northeast Corridor and other regional routes throughout the country. Some of these cars have been in service close to 50 years.

Toward this end, in 2021 Amtrak placed a $3.4 billion order with Siemens for 86 “Airo” trainsets with options for up to 130 more. The first are slated to enter service in 2026. In addition to the Northeast Corridor, Amtrak Airo will operate in Empire Service, Keystone Service, Amtrak Downeaster, Amtrak Cascades, Amtrak Virginia services, and on eight other routes.

The trainsets will feature a cab car at one end and a Charger locomotive at the other, enabling the trainsets to operate in push-pull mode. Three configurations are to be built:

·        Dual-power push/pull with a pantograph-equipped coach called an APV (auxiliary power vehicle) coupled to the locomotive and providing power when the train is in AC catenary mode.

·        Conventional diesel-electric push/pull for service on Washington DOT’s Cascade line, which will receive eight trainsets plus two SC-44 locomotives in addition to the six currently in use.

·        Battery-hybrid push/pull with a battery coach attached to the locomotive to power the train in places where diesel emissions are prohibited or restricted such as New York’s Penn Station, where dual-mode (diesel/third rail) power pulls Empire Service trains.

Finally, Amtrak has begun the process of re-equipping its 14 long-distance overnight trains by soliciting conceptual ideas from potential suppliers. As many as 10 manufacturers submitted recommendation for cars to replace the Superliner, Viewliner, and Amfleet II fleets. The railroad plans to issue a formal request for procurement later this year with funding to come through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.

Like with Amfleet I, the oldest cars used in long-distance service are well over 40 years old and in need of replacement. Since the pandemic many famous trains such as the Capitol Limited and California Zephyr have been running with shortened consists due, in large part, to the lack of available equipment. The result has been sold-out trains and higher fares, which limit access to rail service for many Americans, especially those of limited means. Amtrak is trying to restore cars to service faster.

If all goes according to plan, by the end of this decade most – if not all – trains in the Amtrak system could be equipped with new locomotives and rolling stock. Coupled with $16.4 billion in infrastructure investments on the Northeast Corridor, the railroad will be in a much stronger position than today, better able to meet growing demand.

However, a lot can happen over the next seven years. Equipment orders and capital projects in the US rail sector are prone to delays and cost overruns. New routes take much longer to bring into service than they did when Amtrak was starting up in 1970s. Relationship with freight railroads, already somewhat tempestuous, could worsen.

My worst fear is regime change. Trump 2.0, heaven forbid, will likely look to reverse many if not all of President Biden’s policies and accomplishments. A new Amtrak board, filled with Trump appointees, could oust the current leadership and look to replace them with slash-and-burn CEOs like Richard “Delta Dick” Anderson.

In B-school we were taught nothing can kill a bad product faster than good marketing. If Amtrak succeeds at putting fannies in these seats but the people attached to them can’t wait to get up and out, it will create a new generation of tryer-rejectors. This happened in the 1970s when Amtrak said it was “making trains worth traveling again” but failed to live up to expectations.

While there is little Amtrak can do to avoid external threats it can better manage its business strategy, capital programs, and operations in order to attract and retain riders. Here are a few suggestions.

·        Run triweekly services, i.e. Sunset Limited, Cardinal, daily. Trains that run three times a week are inconvenient for travelers and can disrupt host railroad operations. People are more likely to patronize a service that doesn’t require an extra night in a hotel.

·        Accelerate rolling stock repairs. When Amtrak doesn’t have enough cars some people will not be able to get a seat or a sleeping accommodation. The faster cars can be brought back from the shops the sooner they can be generating revenue again.

·        Restore full dining car service and serve coach passengers. A 10-hour, 20-hour or longer journey is  long time to subsist solely on prepacked food. Better food service choices will attract coach passengers to long-distance trains. Any train with a schedule that spans two or more meal periods should offer a full meal service to all passengers.

·        Add European-style overnight runs. The “night train” is making a comeback in Europe thanks to services like OBB’s NightJet that offer three classes of service and combine trains to different destinations. The train serves as a hotel-in-route, which saves travelers money, and lets them get a good night’s sleep rather that waking before the roosters to catch an early flight.

There are probably dozens of markets in the 300 – 500-mile range where Amtrak could begin or increase service with this strategy. Best of all, since the trains run at conventional speeds, there is no need to spends billions to upgrade routes to high-speed rail standards.

What other ideas do you have for improving service and attracting and retaining riders?